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"Golzow is a municipality in the Potsdam-Mittelmark district, in Brandenburg, Germany. Within the municipality is a large forest, the Golzower Busch. Demography Development of Population since 1875 within the Current Boundaries (Blue Line: Population; Dotted Line: Comparison to Population Development of Brandenburg state; Grey Background: Time of Nazi rule; Red Background: Time of Communist rule) References Category:Localities in Potsdam-Mittelmark Category:Province of Brandenburg Category:Bezirk Potsdam "
"Michael Don Ward (born August 24, 1948) is an American political scientist and academic. He is professor emeritus of political science at Duke University, an affiliate of the Duke Network Analysis Center, and the principal investigator at Ward Lab, a website that creates conflict predictions using Bayesian modeling and network analysis.. He is the founder of Predictive Heuristics, a consultancy that does risk analysis for a variety of clients. Biography Ward received a B. A. (Hons) from Indiana University in 1970 where he studied with Dina A. Zinnes and John Gillespie. He served with the 287th Military Police (Sep) in the Berlin Brigade from 1970 to 1972. Subsequently, he earned a Ph.D. in political science from Northwestern University in 1977 after which he was the Gordon Scott Fulcher Research Fellow where he worked with Harold Guetzkow from 1977 to 1979. He then joined the Science Center Berlin, working with Karl Wolfgang Deutsch and others for two years building a global political model. After leaving the Science Center, he was appointed Associate Professor of political science at the University of Colorado in 1981, where he was Director of the Center for International Relations. He later moved to the University of Washington in 1997 where he was a founding member of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences, serving on its executive board for a decade. In 2009, he joined the faculty of Duke University, and established wardlab which was focused on conflict predictions. He is currently an emeritus professor at Duke University, an elected fellow of the Society for Political Methodology, and an affiliate professor at the University of Washington. Academic work and reception Ward is the author of two books on statistical methods and one book on world geography, as well as editor or co-editor of three books on political science and political geography. Ward is the principal investigator at Ward Lab, a research lab of graduate and undergraduate students at Duke. It is also a website that creates conflict predictions using Bayesian modeling and network analysis. The lab also runs Predictive Heuristics, one of the foremost blogs on global political forecasting and conflict forecasting. Ward's article "The perils of policy by p-value", along with Brian D. Greenhill and Kristin M. Bakke, was included by political scientist Jay Ulfelder in his list of suggested readings for political forecasters. Phil Schrodt commented that this work is "in terms of political prediction using formal models, easily the most important work in the past quarter century." Ward is also known for having a relatively optimistic outlook about the ability to forecast potential conflicts and crises, putting him at odds with Jay Ulfelder, as expressed in an article by Ulfelder for Foreign Policy and a response by Ward and Metternich in the same magazine. Ulfelder later clarified his position and indicated that the disagreement was less deep than it seemed. A paper co-authored by Ward and others at Ward Lab received a mixed review from Ulfelder, who agreed with the author's goals and their assessment of the importance of the scientific value and policy relevance of forecasting, but considered the author's attempt in the paper to be overly ambitious. References External links * Category:1948 births Category:Living people Category:Duke University faculty Category:Indiana University alumni Category:Northwestern University alumni Category:American political scientists "
"Sir Ingram de Umfraville (fl. 1284–1320) was a Scottish noble who played a particularly chequered role in the Wars of Scottish Independence, changing sides between England and Scotland multiple times, throughout the conflict. Life Ingram was the son of Robert de Umfraville of Collertonhttp://db.poms.ac.uk/record/factoid/9281/ People of Medieval Scotland - Father of Ingram de Umfraville (d.c.1321)(Familial relationship) and Eva de Balliol. In 1284 he joined with other Scottish noblemen who acknowledged Margaret of Norway as the heir of King Alexander III.Foedera, p228 Ingram adopted the arms of Baliol and inherited the estates of Ingram Baliol on Baliol's death, being Foston in Leicestershire, Wharrington-upon-Tees in County Durham as well as the barony of Urr in Galloway and Red Castle in Angus. He was one of the ambassadors who established the 'Auld alliance' with France and Scotland in 1295. He was present at the siege of Berwick in 1296 with King Edward I of England and fought on the English side during the Battle of Falkirk in 1298. Fighting on the side of Scotland he participated in the siege of Stirling Castle in 1299. He was appointed joint Guardian of Scotland on 10 May 1300 together with William Lamberton, Bishop of St Andrews, and John Comyn, Lord of Badenoch. He resigned the next year and was replaced by John de Soules. He participated in the siege of Lochmaben Castle in September 1301. In 1303 he again became an ambassadors to Paris and upon returning from France in 1304, Ingram had his lands forfeited to King Edward I, who gave them to Sir Henry de Percy. He received his lands back upon Robert the Bruce declaring himself King in 1306. Ingram switched sides to the English and in 1307 became one of their commanders in the Carrick and Galloway area and held the Bruce and his small army in the hill country south of the Forth. King Edward II of England made Ingram Guardian of South and West Scotland. Edward Bruce defeated Ingram during the Battle of the River Dee in 1308. He fought on the side of the English at the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314. After the battle Ingram fled the field to Bothwell Castle, where he was captured and later ransomed. Ingram left Scotland in 1320 and obtained safe conducts from Edward II to travel to France. Family and issue Ingram married Isabella, widow of Ailéan mac Ruaidhrí of Garmoran and had the following known issue: *Eva de Umfraville, married Phillip de Mowbray, had issue. *Isabella de Umfraville Notes Citations References Rymer, Thomas,Foedera Conventiones, Literae et cuiuscunque generis Acta Publica inter Reges Angliae. London. 1745. (Latin) Category:Guardians of Scotland Category:Scottish people of the Wars of Scottish Independence Category:Signatories to the Declaration of Arbroath Ingram "